PERCEPTIONS OF STRATEGIC ACTORS ON CLIMATE GOVERNANCE AND BIODIVERSITY PROTECTION IN THE AMAZON: EVIDENCE FROM COP30

Resumo

This article examines climate governance and biodiversity protection in the Amazon as its central theme. The research problem concerns how the perceptions of strategic actors reveal tensions between international commitments and domestic implementation capacities. The objective is to analyze these perceptions regarding Brazil's engagement with the global climate agenda, drawing on a cross-sectional survey applied in person at the Green Zone of COP30, in Belém (PA), Brazil, in November 2025, with 89 respondents from the public sector, private sector, academia, and civil society. The theoretical framework draws on polycentric governance (Ostrom), neoliberal institutionalism (Keohane), and soft power (Nye). Results show that the prevailing assessment is one of partial progress toward Brazil's Paris Agreement commitments, with political-institutional barriers, economic pressures, land-use conflicts, and intergovernmental coordination failures, identified as the main obstacles. Brazil is perceived as participatory but with limited influence in international negotiations, reflecting a gap between external discourse and domestic performance. Bivariate analysis indicates that institutional affiliation moderately conditions these evaluations (Cramér's V = 0.328). The findings confirm that effective climate governance in the Amazon depends on the state's capacity to coordinate polycentric arrangements and overcome structural domestic constraints.